Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
- The FOMC is of course more heavily focused on PCE developments, but this has also been stronger than the Fed likely expected.
- Core PCE increased 0.42% M/M in January in an abrupt change from the 0.13% M/M averaged through 4Q23, which saw the six-month trend increase from 1.9% to 2.5% annualized.
- A typically dovish Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter) pushed back against this uptick, urging focus on the broader disinflation progress.
- However, latest analyst estimates are centered around 0.3% M/M for February which if realized would push this rate to 2.9%, possibly higher if January’s print is revised upwards.
- Supercore PCE estimates for February are harder to come by at this stage, but the six-month rate increased from 2.8% to 3.4% in January and looks set to accelerate further after a particularly soft August reading drops out.
- These trend rates are starting to put upward pressure on the Fed’s 4Q24 core PCE forecast of 2.4% Y/Y, revised in the December SEP from the previously long-held 2.6, although there will still be question marks over the extent to which start-of-year price hikes have pushed recent trends higher.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok