Free Trial

Manufacturing PMI Remains Well Above 50 Level Despite Elevated Risk Aversion

HUNGARY
  • This morning, economic data showed that manufacturing PMI rose to 57.8 in July, up from 57, and continues to stand well above the 50-line threshold that separates growth from contraction despite the elevated geopolitical uncertainty.
  • We have seen in recent months that Hungary has been extremely sensitive to the Russia/Ukraine developments, and that the rise in risky aversion has led to a severe depreciation of the HUF.
  • HUF is currently the ‘cheapest’ currency among the G10/CEE world, trading over 30% below its ‘fundamental’ value (historical ranges, BEER value model…).
  • This chart shows the strong divergence between Hungary mfg. PMI and Euro/CEE ones.
  • PMIs in other European regions have all fallen below 50 as expected as recession risks have been surging since the start of the war.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.