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Marcel To Discuss Tax Reform Bill, Analysts On CLP

CHILE
  • Finance Minister Mario Marcel will discuss the government’s tax reform bill at a seminar in Santiago.
  • Citigroup strategists are recommending investors bet against the Chilean peso versus the dollar through one-month forward contracts.
  • The Chilean peso had benefited from a more favorable global environment since the launch of the fx intervention program, they wrote, but a “a small amount of USD strength,” along with a disappointing second-quarter current-account deficit brought the CLP under pressure again.
    • “Higher rates could support the FX and are also needed to bring down inflation and its expectations,” they wrote. “It is still unclear if authorities will deliver a large enough hike needed to stabilize the FX, with the market still pricing odds between 75bp and 50bp for the next meeting”.
    • “The CLP will continue to test authorities as the limits [of the program] are hit”.
  • *Furthermore, according to Morgan Stanley, investors should consider rallies as a chance to add short exposure in the Chilean peso, as the currency may continue to weaken versus the dollar with foreign-exchange reserves dropping, scarce foreign-direct investment and a continued current-account imbalance.
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