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March and May FOMC Implied Rates Extend Post Bullard Nudge Lower

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are mixed overnight, extending a little lower for March and May meetings but marginally higher for late 2024.
  • Cumulative cuts are seen at 13.5bp for March and 33bp for May, with impetus coming from former St Louis Fed’s Bullard (who led the FOMC in the call for higher rates in the hiking cycle) yesterday touting cutting before inflation returns to 2%, opening the way for a 1H24 cut.
  • Further out, there is a cumulative 57bp of cuts to June and 136bp to Dec.
  • The BoC decision lands at 0945ET today. Unanimously expected to keep rates on hold at 5% but with focus on implications for a cutting cycle that is currently only fully priced to start in June.

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