March Jobs Data Up, Expected To Post Another Rise

At 1130 AEST employment data for March is released. The labour market has been extremely tight and this data has been monitored closely by the RBA. It came in better-than-expected last month and analysts expect February’s 64.6k to be followed by another 20k in March. But this is unlikely to be enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising 0.1pp to 3.6%, as labour supply grows through increased immigration.

• While the median expectation for new jobs in March is 20k, forecasts range from +10k to +45k. Most estimates are in the quite narrow 10-20k range. ANZ is at the upper end of forecasts with +40k, NAB at +30k, Westpac +25k and CBA +20k.
• The call on the unemployment rate is quite close. 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect it to rise 0.1pp to 3.6%, while 9 predict it to be unchanged at 3.5%. One is forecasting a fall to 3.4% and another a greater rise to 3.7%. ANZ, NAB and Westpac all expect it to remain at 3.5%, while CBA is forecasting 3.6%.
• The participation rate is widely expected to be stable at 66.6%.