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March Pricing Trimmed Further On Williams Comments

FED
  • Fed Funds pricing for Mar 16 has fallen from 34bp to 31bp after NY Fed’s Williams said he doesn’t see a compelling argument for a big first rate increase, another voice to lean towards a 25bp hike.
  • Of the more hawkish 2022 voters, Mester shied away from outright calling for a 50bp yesterday (supports March liftoff before tightening at a faster pace over 2H22 if inflation doesn’t moderate as expected) whilst George said mid-week it’s too soon to say if we need a 50bp hike although it paves ground for discussion.
  • This leaves Bullard with his call for front-loaded hikes with 100bps over the next three meetings.
  • Harker (2023) had recently indicated he was in the 25bp camp despite the strong payrolls and inflation data, having been undecided between 25 and 50bps prior to the data.

Fed Funds pricing for Mar16 and additional pricing for May 4Source: Bloomberg

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