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March Trade Surplus Widens But Q1 Narrower

INDONESIA
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Indonesia’s March trade surplus widened more than expected due to stronger exports and weaker imports, but both still contracted on the year. The surplus rose to $4.47bn from $0.83bn in February with exports declining 4.2% y/y up from -9.6% but imports down 12.8% y/y after rising 15.8%.

  • Given recent rupiah weakness, Bank Indonesia is likely to be reassured by the largest surplus since February last year, assuming it is sustained, but Q1 was almost $5bn lower than Q1 last year. BI meets on April 24 and is expected to leave rates at 6% but around a quarter of analysts are forecasting a 25bp hike. USDIDR is up 2.3% this month and is currently trading around 16215, down from Friday’s close of 16255.
  • Non-oil & gas exports improved to -4.2% y/y from -10.3% while gas fell -8.7% but improved from -19%. Coal and palm oil exports rose on the month. Q1 exports though were down 7.3% y/y.
  • Non-oil & gas imports fell 16.7% y/y after rising 14.4%, which was driven by a sharp 19.5% y/y drop in goods from China. Consumer goods imports rose 5% y/y signalling continued robust private consumption, but capital goods fell 21.7% and raw materials -12.6% y/y. Q1 GDP is released on May 6.
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Indonesia’s March trade surplus widened more than expected due to stronger exports and weaker imports, but both still contracted on the year. The surplus rose to $4.47bn from $0.83bn in February with exports declining 4.2% y/y up from -9.6% but imports down 12.8% y/y after rising 15.8%.

  • Given recent rupiah weakness, Bank Indonesia is likely to be reassured by the largest surplus since February last year, assuming it is sustained, but Q1 was almost $5bn lower than Q1 last year. BI meets on April 24 and is expected to leave rates at 6% but around a quarter of analysts are forecasting a 25bp hike. USDIDR is up 2.3% this month and is currently trading around 16215, down from Friday’s close of 16255.
  • Non-oil & gas exports improved to -4.2% y/y from -10.3% while gas fell -8.7% but improved from -19%. Coal and palm oil exports rose on the month. Q1 exports though were down 7.3% y/y.
  • Non-oil & gas imports fell 16.7% y/y after rising 14.4%, which was driven by a sharp 19.5% y/y drop in goods from China. Consumer goods imports rose 5% y/y signalling continued robust private consumption, but capital goods fell 21.7% and raw materials -12.6% y/y. Q1 GDP is released on May 6.