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Marginally Richer After RBA Hikes 25bps

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs sit ~1bp richer across the major benchmarks. The space firmed after the RBA hiked the cash rate but revised forecasts including the peak in unemployment and CPI inflation returning to the top of the target band by the end of 2025 rather than “within” it. We were ~4bps cheaper pre announcement.

  • Futures have observed narrow ranges with little follow through ticking marginally higher after the RBA meeting. XM and YM are both 0.01 higher.
  • RBA dated futures price a terminal rate of ~4.45% in March 24 with 15bps of cuts by Oct 24.
  • Pre-RBA the local docket was empty and there was little in the way of meaningful headline flow in a mostly muted session.
  • Looking ahead the local docket is empty until Friday the Statement on Monetary Policy crosses.
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