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What to Watch: Headline July Employment Report


Tsys weaker on very light volumes (TYU2<155k) in lead-up to headline employment report for July. Futures currently extending overnight low (30YY 2.9774% high), yield curves holding near 22 year inverted lows (2s10s currently -37.226 vs. Thu's -39.611 low).

  • Economists anticipate moderate jobs slow-down; focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labor market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
  • Data coming up at 0830 (prior, est):
    • Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (372k, 250k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls (381k, 230k)
    • Unemployment Rate (3.6%, 3.6%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (5.1%, 4.9%)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate (62.2%, 62.2%)
  • Scheduled Fed speakers
    • Richmond Fed Barkin Lexington Chamber of Comm, Q&A 0800ET
  • Treasury auctions: resume next week with $42B 3Y Notes on Tuesday, $35B 10Y Notes Wed, $21B 30Y Bonds on Thursday.
  • Cross asset: Stocks marginally lower (SPX eminis -4.0 at 4148.25) w/ muted earnings docket ahead the open; Spot Gold scales back portion of Thu's rally currently -6.28 at 1785.00; Crude softer (WTI -0.08 at 88.46).
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 2.1bps at 3.0633%, 5-Yr is up 1.2bps at 2.8041%, 10-Yr is up 1.1bps at 2.699%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 2.9742%.

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