Market Roundup: Re-Assessing Risk

Geopol risk assessment continues after Russia invasion of Ukraine on multiple fronts early Thursday. Risk appetite improved after US President Biden outlined targeted sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine overnight (does not support preventing access to SWIFT system - for now), while assurances that US troops would not be sent to Ukraine helped calm markets in late trade.

Carry-over unwind of risk-off/safe haven moves continues:

• Tsys near recent session lows (30YY 2.3043%, +0.0262bp vs. Thu's 2.1590 low)
• Equities firmer/overnight highs: SPX eminis +20 points (+0.47%) at 4304.0
• US$ scales back: DXY -0.233 to 96.903. vs. 97.607 late Thu.
• Gold had topped 1973.0 early Thu now trading around 1893.0 (-10.15).
• WTI crude mildly bid: +.45 at 93.24 after topping 100.0 briefly amid ongoing debate over whether US and allies will target energy if/when they introduce more sanctions on Russia.
• Technicals: TYH2 hit high of 127-12+ Thu before giving back most of its gains. Climb however signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle and attention remains on the 50-day EMA at 127-29.
  • Note that MA studies still highlight a broader bearish trend condition and the 50-day EMA is seen as an important resistance. On the downside watch support at 126.03, Feb 23 low and 125-17+, the Feb 10 low and bear trigger.