May 05, 2022 14:37 GMT
Tsy futures extending session lows after gaining briefly on BoE dovish hike annc. Bond yld have surged to 3.1438% high -- late 2018 levels as curves bear steepen:
- 2s10s +4.903 at 33.724 last, 34.519 high
- 5s30s +1.673 at 3.507 vs. 4.072 high, well off pre-FOMC inversion
- Little react to rise in weekly claims (+19k to 200Kk), modest drop in continuing claims (-0.019M to 1.384M).
- Focus back on policy: FOMC relief rally short lived with stocks giving back much of late Wed gains -- ESM2 currently 4181.0 vs. 4300.5 high Wed, current focus on 4142.75/4056.00 Low May 4 / Low May 2 and the bear trigger
- It's not that the Fed is less hawkish after hiking 50bp and penciling in June for start of QT, it's that the relief rally that followed Chairman Powell's presser was overdone. Short end remains under pressure, pricing in 50bp hikes over the next three meetings. Cross-market pressure after ECBs Rehn said bank should hike in July.
- US 10Y technicals: Treasuries remain bearish w/ TYM2 currently at 118-07.5 (-29.5) vs. 118-06 low. Through support at 118-08 (Apr 22 low and bear trigger) signals a resumption of the downtrend, maintaining bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Attention on next key support of 118-02+ next, a Fibonacci projection and 117-22+, the Nov 8 2018 low (cont).
- Cross-assets: WTI Crude Oil (front-month) bouncing +$1.69 at $109.51; Gold gains +6.37 at $1887.59.