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Market Roundup: Digesting Fed Speak Mash-Up

US TSYS

Tsy futures back to trading mixed after testing late overnight highs a few minutes ago. Trading desks citing Fed Harker comment on a 50bp hike is "still a substantial move" for latest bounce after conceding there is no decision yet on the size of a hike at the Sep FOMC.

  • Earlier Fed speak leaned hawkish (but not groundbreaking) as Bostic said strong data could tip Fed toward 75bp, KC Fed George: rates could exceed 4%.
  • Futures hold inside range after setting session lows on lower than expected weekly claims at 243k vs. 252k est, first revision of Q2 GDP is -0.6% vs. -0.7% est. Yield curves currently mixed after extending highs 2s10s currently at -28.112 vs. -25.669 high.
  • Technicals: Treasuries maintain a bearish tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. 117-07, 61.8% of the Jun 14 - Aug 2 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of this area of support would strengthen the bearish case and signal scope for an extension lower towards 116-26+ next, the Jun 29 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA, at 118-26+.
  • Fed-speak done for the day, focus turns to KC Fed's annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium: Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy, agenda release tonight at 2000ET; Chairman Powell speaks Fri at 1000ET (0800 local), text is expected but no Q&A.

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