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Market Roundup: New All-Time Inverted Lows for 2s10s

US TSYS

Focus on bull curve flattening as 2s10s falls to new all-time inverted low of -65.289 as short end under pressure after stronger Retail Sales (+1.3% vs. 1.0% est, ex-auto +1.3% vs. 0.5% est) tempered yr-end "step-down" pricing: Fed funds implied hike for Dec'22 back to 49.8bp, Feb'23 cumulative 85.3bp vs. 84.5bp, to 4.707%, terminal 4.92% in Jun'23 (5.08% pre-CPI).

  • Bonds strong - holding near session highs (30YY currently 3.8882%) heading into the US Tsy $15B 20Y Bond auction (WI 4.090%). No obvious headline driver for bounce, some trading desks simply state need to add duration, add flatteners.
  • Solid October retail sales report, with stronger revisions to prior, and a robust +0.7% M/M control group number (which is what feeds into the GDP calculations).The 1.3% overall gains included positive M/M readings in most categories.
  • As usual, the impact of inflation will be a point of contention for October's retail sales beat - real retail sales is close to flat Y/Y (vs the 8.3% Y/Y gain in nominal).
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