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Market Roundup: Weaker FI Inside Range, UofM Sentiment Climbs

US TSYS
Tsys as well as equities rebounded after better than expected UofM sentiment but rates have gradually receded to weaker opening levels by midday.
  • UoM data climbed from 59.7 prior to 64.6 (60.7 est) underscoring the case for a soft landing for the economy as sentiment hit its highest lvl since Apr'22, while 1Y inflation exp recedes to lowest lvl since Apr 2021 at 4.0% vs. 4.3% exp (4.4% prior).
  • At the margin it suggests growing headwinds to input prices but only after a string of solidly negative readings, averaging -0.4% M/M through Jun-Nov during which period core goods inflation has fallen notably.
  • Earlier data showed surprising strength for import prices, rising 0.4% M/M (cons -0.9%) and with a broadly similar sized upside surprise for ex-petroleum prices at 0.8% M/M (cons -0.3%).
  • Decent first half trade died down in the second half, US markets closed for Dr Martin Luther King Jr Day. Limited docket for Tuesday while equity earnings resume: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expected to announce before the NY open. Data picks up in earnest on Wednesday January 18 with Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories, Net TIC flows.
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