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Market Sees Another Three to Four Hikes This Year

CZECHIA
  • As opposed to Poland, which is trying to keep interest rates low in order to stimulate the economic recovery, the CNB has started a tightening cycle last month and is expected to raise its benchmark rate by another 25bps to 0.75% at its next meeting on August 5.
  • While policymakers have been hinting that CNB will hike another two times this year (including Aug 5), market participants are pricing three to four hikes (4 hikes implies a 25bps hike at each meeting) with FRA 6Mx9M trading 83bps above the Pribor 3M.
  • USDCZK ticks higher this morning after finding support at its 200DMA at 21.67; on the topside, first resistance stands at 21.92, followed by 22. On the downside, first support to watch below 21.67 (200DMA), followed by 21.49 (100DMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield has been retracing lower in recent days, breaking below its 50DMA at 1.70% yesterday; next support to watch on the downside stands at 1.60%. On the topside, ST resistance to watch stands at 1.78%, followed by 1.80%.
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