Markets Await Potential Venezuelan Sanctions Easing Tuesday

Reminder: Venezuela will resume talks with US officials today in Barbados in a move that will potentially ease sanctions on its oil.

• If successful, the Maduro government will allow banned oppositions candidates to run in the 2024 election and would mark its first concession in a decade.
• Norwegian officials, facilitating the deal, said it would be signed in Barbados Tuesday.
• “We’re on the verge of starting a good round of signing documents for electoral guarantees,” Maduro said on his TV show Monday evening.
• The potential eased sanctions on Venezuela are expected to allow higher oil exports out of the country.
• It is not clear yet what shape that would form but may allow another oil company to export oil in exchange for a debt swap rather than cash – like how the Chevron arrangement from late last year currently works.
• News of the deal yesterday prompted some downward pressure on crude that has faced lots of upside support from Middle East instability in recent weeks.
• The participants plan to hold a press conference Tuesday in Barbados after the agreement is signed so expect headlines on the matter later.