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Markets Built on Post-Fed USD Losses

FOREX
  • Dollar weakness pervades further after the Fed decision, with the reaction extending into early Thursday trade. EUR/USD has shown above $1.0900 handle for the first time since early December, adding to gains following the close above the 200-dma yesterday.
  • USD/JPY holds the entirety of the post-Fed losses, tipping the pair through the 141.71 post-Ueda lows and looking to cement weakness through 141.52 support. Next key support undercuts at 140.71, the 76.4% Jul - Nov upleg.
  • The NOK trades sharply higher after the Norges Bank took a large part of the market by surprise in hiking rates by a further 25bps to 4.50%. While the bank subsequently signaled that this will mark a peak for the policy rate, a large number of sell-side analysts saw no change today, meaning the NOK was marked sharply higher.
  • EUR/NOK traded lower by as much as 3% on the initial decision, piercing key support at both the 100- and 200-dma to print the lowest level since early October.
  • The SNB decision also prompted a spell of volatility. While rates were held unchanged, the decision to omit the bias for selling foreign currency drew some focus, although EUR/CHF trades broadly inline with pre-decision levels headed into the NY crossover.
  • Focus remains on central banks, with both the Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions ahead. While neither bank is expected to change headline policy, ample market focus will be on any communications for rates ahead, with hefty rate cuts already well-priced in for 2024.
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