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Markets Flatline as Geopolitical Risk Fades

FOREX
  • Antipodean currencies are modestly higher, with AUD and NZD modestly firmer against broader G10. Resultingly, AUD/USD has firmed just above last week's lows, however there are few technical signs of a firmer bounce at current levels. Last week's 0.6363 print marks multi-month lows in the pair, and renewed weakness opens mid-November lows at 0.6339 and below.
  • The USD Index is flat but holds the bulk of the early April rally. With the Fed inside the pre-meeting media blackout, focus remains on recent highs of 106.517, a break above which puts prices at the best levels since November.
  • CHF trades among the poorest in G10. Friday's CFTC update showed markets built the CHF net short to its largest level since 2019 as the SNB easing cycle contrasts further with the persistent pushback in ECB/BoE/Fed cycle expectations.
  • Focus for the duration of the Monday session rests on the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index as well as Eurozone consumer confidence. The central bank speaker slate sees ECB's Villeroy and Lagarde on the docket, with Fed speakers notably absent as the FOMC enter their pre-meeting media blackout period.
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