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Markets Price Another 140bp In Hikes, Incl 100bp Through Next 2 Meetings

ECB

The ECB hawks sound triumphant this morning - with Rehn saying 50bp hikes likely In Feb and Mar, and he's "not convinced" markets are correctly pricing the terminal rate, echoes Lagarde's comments yesterday.

  • It's not clear whether he's seen the latest pricing, which implies another 140bp in hikes from here to next September implying 3.40% terminal depo rates (and rising, as Rehn is speaking), as opposed to around 100bp pre-ECB meeting yesterday. But would guess he'd be happy with even more.
  • Cumulative pricing through the next 2 meetings is a little under 100bp.

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