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Markets Roundup: Debt Deal Meets House Rules Hurdles

US TSYS
  • US fixed income markets enjoyed strong support after returning from extended holiday weekend, risk appetite generally positive after a bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit for the next two years while keeping non-defense spending flat for the next year (+1% in the second year) was announced Saturday.
  • Getting the deal to pass through a fractious Congress before the June 5 "X" date is the real challenge. The agreement faces its final procedural hurdle today when it is considered by the House Rules Committee at 15:00 ET 20:00 BST.
  • Treasury futures briefly pared early support following stronger than expected Home Price Index (0.6% M/M; EST. 0.2%), rebounding to new session highs after Conference Board consumer confidence came out stronger than expected in May at 102.3 (cons 99.0) although still represented a decline on the month after a sizeable upward revision to 103.7 (initial 101.3). The net impact was lowest consumer confidence since November.
  • Focus turns to key employment data later this week: ADP private employment data to be released Thursday, one day later than usual due to the holiday, while May NFP will be released Friday, current median estimate at +190k job gains for May vs. +253k prior. Fed enters policy blackout at midnight Friday.
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