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Markets Roundup: Drifting Near Highs Ahead FOMC Annc

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are drifting near moderate session highs since extending the top end of the range following this morning's lower than expected PPI (-0.3% vs. -0.1% est; YoY flat vs +1.5% est). Fast two-way trade immediately after the release, curves bull steepened: 2s10s tapped -82.549 high, as short end rates outperformed.
  • Short end SFOR futures continued to extend highs (SFRM3 +1.25 at 94.7925) as chances of a rate hike from the Fed at the top of the hour continues to ebb, and expectations of a midyear hike cools.
  • Chances of a 25bp hike next approximately 8% with Fed funds implied at 2bp. Expectation of midyear hike at the low end of the week's range with July cumulative +15.7bp to 5.238%, September cumulative at +17.2bp to 5.253. Dec'23 cumulative currently flat after pricing out a small chance of a cut yesterday. Fed terminal at 5.250% in Oct'23.
  • The FOMC is widely expected to deliver a "hawkish hold" at the top of the hour, keeping the door open for a modest rate hike in one or more of the future meetings, data dependent vs. data based (BofA).
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