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Markets View ZAR, HUF, TWD as Most Sensitive Ahead of Fed

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Markets remain on watch for any signals from the Fed today that a pivot-point in policy could come as soon as December. Suitably, USD/EM overnight implied volatility has surged higher across the board, with the vol premium added over yesterday's close an indication of the market's view of a currency's sensitivity to the Fed decision today.
  • USD/ZAR's overnight implied vol has added close to 11 points off the Tuesday close, the largest ppt increase among the currencies surveyed, although the change in TWD implied vol is the largest in percentage terms.
  • Overnight USD/ZAR straddle pricing breaks even on a circa 1.2% move in the pair, assuming an 18.111 spot price.
Figure 1: Overnight Implied Vols surge ahead of the Fed decision

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