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MNI BOE Preview - June 2023: Things have changed

  • Following the May MPC meeting the wideheld view was that Bank Rate would see a final 25bp hike in June 2023 to a terminal 4.75%.
  • However, since then we have seen both labour market and inflation data surprise notably to the upside, markets have added over 100bp to terminal pricing and all analysts (as well as the MNI Markets team) look for 25bp hikes in June and August, at the least.
  • We expect little change to forward guidance and lean towards a 2-7-0 vote (unch-25-50).
  • The MNI Markets team thinks that it is looking like we will not get the first cut for around a year from now, with wage growth likely to remain elevated.
  • We also summarise the views of over 20 sellside analysts.
For the full MNI BOE Preview see:

MNI BoE Preview - Jun23.pdf

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