MNI BRIEF: ISM Expects Sluggish Growth, Sticky Services Prices

MNI BRIEF: German Infl In Line With EA, Growth Lags - GCEE

MNI BRIEF: Focus Support For Cutting-Edge Tech - Ministry

MNI BRIEF: EU Won't Necessarily Follow US on Tariffs-Gentiloni

MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, May 15

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY125 Bln 1Y MLF Weds; Rates Unchanged

MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN MAR +$102.1B

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 1/3/6-Month UKTB Auction on Friday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Spain, France Auction on Thursday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI BOE Preview - May 2024: Another Step on the Path to Cuts

There will be three factors that markets will pay attention to at the MPC’s May decision: the vote, the guidance and the forecasts.

BoE - PreviewCentral Bank PreviewHomepageCentral Bank ReportsMarkets
  • There will be three factors that markets will pay attention to at the MPC’s May decision: the vote, the guidance and the forecasts.
  • The MNI Markets team’s base case is for another 8-1 vote with Dhingra the sole dissenter. However, we see around a 25% probability that Ramsden joins her in voting for an immediate cut at the May meeting.
  • We look at potential changes to the Bank's forwarrd guidance.
  • We expect CPI forecasts of 1.9-2.0% in 2 years and around 1.7% in 3 years. Any deviations to this could prompt market moves.
  • Markets are pricing almost no risk of an immediate policy change at this meeting, with Bank Rate expected to remain at 5.25% and QT already on a pre-set pace until after the September MPC meeting.
For the full preview see:

MNI BoE Preview - May24.pdf

142 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • There will be three factors that markets will pay attention to at the MPC’s May decision: the vote, the guidance and the forecasts.
  • The MNI Markets team’s base case is for another 8-1 vote with Dhingra the sole dissenter. However, we see around a 25% probability that Ramsden joins her in voting for an immediate cut at the May meeting.
  • We look at potential changes to the Bank's forwarrd guidance.
  • We expect CPI forecasts of 1.9-2.0% in 2 years and around 1.7% in 3 years. Any deviations to this could prompt market moves.
  • Markets are pricing almost no risk of an immediate policy change at this meeting, with Bank Rate expected to remain at 5.25% and QT already on a pre-set pace until after the September MPC meeting.
For the full preview see:

MNI BoE Preview - May24.pdf