MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Jul 24

• Belgium, Italy and Germany look to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E20.2bln, down from E29.8bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions totalling E24.1bln, the majority of which come from a French formerly 15-year OATi, while coupons will total E6.8bln (of which E6.5bln are French).
• This leaves estimated net flows of negative E10.7bln in the week, a bit closer to neutral versus the negative E16.7bln this week.

EZ230724.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• Belgium will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with E2.7-3.2bln on-the-run 10/30/50-year OLOs on offer: the 3.00% Jun-33 OLO (ISIN: BE0000357666), the 3.30% Jun-54 OLO (ISIN: BE0000358672) and the 0.65% Jun-71 OLO (ISIN: BE0000353624).
• Italy will come to the market on Tuesday to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction. It will look to launch the new 3.60% Sep-25 BTP Short Term (ISIN: TBC) for E3.25-3.75bln alongside the 10-year 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) for E1.00-1.25bln.
• On Wednesday, Germany will come to the market to launch the new 7-year Nov-30 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27006) for E4bln. The coupon will be confirmed on Tuesday.
• Italy will return to the market on Thursday to hold a 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction. We look for a reopening of the 5-year 3.80% Aug-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005548315) for E2.5-3.0bln. We also look for a reopening of the 10-year 4.35% Nov-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005544082) – the size of this is a little less certain in our view as it partly depends on whether the MEF choose to issue another off-the-run 10-year BTP alongside it – something that was done in both May and June. In terms of the CCTeu on offer, we pencil in a reopening of the 0.80% Oct-28 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005534984) for E1.0-1.5bln.