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2Y Midcurve Upside Skew


Just Keeping To 2x50bp Fed Hikes Fully Priced

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Executive Summary:

  • Next week will see issuance from Slovakia, Finland, Germany, Spain and France. MNI estimates gross issuance for the week at E16.8bln, down from this week's E19.0bln.
  • There are only negligible redemptions in the upcoming week and E0.7bln of coupon payments (E0.6bln Italian), so we look for net nominal flows for the week of positive E16.0bln slightly lower than this week's positive E18.9bln.
  • For a recap of last week's issuance alongside graphical representations of issuance in the upcoming weeks and detailed tables of coupon and redemption schedules for the year ahead see the full document.

Full document:


Week Ahead Supply:

  • Slovakia will kick off issuance for the week with E300mln combined of 3/9/15-year SlovGBs on offer. E100mln each of the 0% Jun-24 SlovGB, the 1.00% Oct-30 SlovGb and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB.
  • On Tuesday, Finland will look to sell up to E1bln of 10/25-year RFGBs: up to E500mln of each of the 0.125% Sep-31 RFGB and the 1.375% Apr-37 RFGB.
  • Wednesday will see Germany come to the market to issue E1bln of the 30-year 0% Aug-52 Bund.
  • Spain will come to the market on Thursday with the 5-year on-the-run 0% Jan-27 Bono, the off-the-run 0.60% Oct-29 Obli and the on-the-run 10-yaer 0.50% Oct-31 Obli all on offer. Amounts will be confirmed on Monday.
  • Also on Thursday, France will look to sell E6.5-7.5bln of MT OAT. On offer will be the on-the-run 3-year 0% Feb-24 OAT, the on-the-run 5-year 0% Feb-27 OAT and the off-the-run 2.75% Oct-27 OAT.
  • The week's issuance will conclude on Thursday with France also selling E1.25-1.75bln of linkers: the 0.10% Mar-26 OATei, the 0.10% Mar-28 OATi and the 0.70% Jul-30 OATei.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3820 |

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