MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Nov 27

• The EU, Italy and Germany are due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E14.6bln, up from E9.5bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E19.7bln – E13.1bln of an Italian BTP Short-Term and E6.6bln of a Spanish Bono-i.
• Coupon payments for the week total E7.4bln: E2.6bln Spanish, E2.5bln French and E2.2bln Italian.
• This leaves net flows for the week at an estimated negative E12.5bln versus negative E5.2bln this week.

EZ231127.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with its last EU-bond auction of 2023. Up to E2bln of each of the 4-year 2.00% Oct-27 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DS6) and the 10-year 2.75% Feb-33 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DW8) will be on offer. Note that the European Commission said that in 2024 there would be a “very heavy pipeline” of NGEU issuance after the slowdown seen in H2-24 issuance. See our Policy Team’s brief here.
• Wednesday will see Italy come to the market to hold its last 5/10-year BTP and CCTeu auction of the year. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 5-year 4.10% Feb-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005566408), E3.0-3.5bln of the on-the-run 10-year 4.20% Mar-34 BTP (ISIN: IT0005560948) and E0.75-1.0bln of the 0.50% Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
• Wednesday will also see Germany hold its last 10-year Bund auction of 2023 with E3.5bln of the 2.60% Aug-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z015) on offer.