MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 16

• Slovakia, the Netherlands, Germany, Finland, Greece, Spain and France are all due to issue in the week ahead. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E35.6bln, almost double the E18.8bln this week.
• The week ahead sees redemptions of E33.4bln: most notably a formerly 7-year BTP for E16.1bln, a formerly 10-year RAGB for E12.1bln and a formerly 6-year EFSF bond for E5.0bln.
• Coupon payments for the week total E3.1bln of which E1.0bln are Portuguese, E0.6bln Austrian, E0.5bln are German and E0.5bln Italian.
• This leaves net flows for the week again relatively close to flat at an estimated negative E1.0bln versus negative E0.6bln this week.

For more see the PDF here:

EZ231016.pdf

Week Ahead Supply

• Slovakia will look to kick off issuance for the week on Monday. On offer will be the short 4-year 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 10-year 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230) and the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958).
• On Tuesday the Netherlands will look to hold a DDA for E4.0-5.0bln to launch the new 20-year 3.25% Jan-44 Green DSL (ISIN: ISIN: NL0015001RG8). The initial spread guidance is due to be announced on Monday with the reference bond the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund.
• Germany will then look to sell E5bln of the new Dec-25 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22031).
• Finland will then look to conclude issuance on Tuesday with an RFGB auction. We expect the 10-year 3.00% Sep-33 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000550249) to be on offer, potentially alongside the 5-year 2.875% Apr-29 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000557525).
• Wednesday will see Greece come to the market to hold a GGB auction with the details due to be announced the day before the auction (Tuesday 17 October).
• Germany will also return to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 2.60% Aug-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z015) on offer.
• Thursday will see Spain come to the market to hold a Bono/Olbi auction. On offer will be the 2.15% Oct-25 Obli (ISIN: ES00000127G9), the 0.80% Jul-29 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K53) and the on-the-run 10-year 3.55% Oct-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L78). We expect Spain to continue to stick to a E5.5-6.5bln auction size and again note the skew towards shorter duration lines that we saw in the September mid-month auction.
• France will then come to the market to hold a medium-term OAT auction for E10.0-11.5bln. We note that unlike LT OAT auctions, the top of the range has been achieved at every MT OAT auction since March 2021. On offer will be the on-the-run 3/5-year OATs (the 2.50% Sep-26 OAT (ISIN: FR001400FYQ4) and the 2.75% Feb-29 OAT (ISIN: FR001400HI98)) alongside off-the-run 4/7-year OATs (the 2.75% Oct-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0011317783) and the 2.50% May-30 OAT (ISIN: FR0011883966)).
• France will then conclude issuance for the week later on Thursday with a combined E1.25-1.75bln of index-linked OATs for auction: the 0.10% Mar-26 OATei (ISIN: FR0013519253), the 0.10% Mar-29 OATei (ISIN: FR0013410552) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).