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MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix - W/C Oct 24

  • The EU, Belgium, Germany and Italy will all look to issue bonds in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross nominal issuance of E22.0bln from announced operations, down from this week’s E26.6bln.
  • The upcoming week will see redemptions totalling E37.1bln with E35.4bln being a formerly 10-year OAT and smaller redemptions from Greece, Slovenia and Latvia.
  • Coupon payments will be E10.0bln (of which E9.1bln are Spanish).
  • With estimated gross issuance of E22.0bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of negative E25.1bln in the week ahead, down from this week’s positive E5.2bln.
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Week Ahead Supply:

  • The EU will kick off issuance for the week on Monday with up to E2.5bln of the 4-year 0% Jul-26 EU NGEU (ISIN: EU000A3KTGV8) and up to E1.5bln of the 15-year 0.40% Feb-37 Green EU (ISIN: EU000A3K4C42) on offer.
  • Also on Monday, Belgium will look to sell 10/30-year OLOs for E1.7-2.2bln. On offer will be the 0.35% Jun-32 OLO (ISIN: BE0000354630) and the 1.40% Jul-53 OLO (ISIN: BE0000355645).
  • On Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E4bln of the 1.30% Oct-27 Bobl (ISIN: DE0001141869).
  • Italy will come to the market on Wednesday with BTP Short Term /BTPeis on offer. We expect a reopening of the 1.75% May-24 BTP Short (ISIN: IT0005499311). We have less conviction on the BTPei but we suspect it could be either the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) or the 2.55% Sep-41 BTPei (ISIN: IT0004545890).
  • On Friday, Italy will return to the market to sell 5/10-year BTPs alongside the CCTeu. We expect a reopening of the 2.65% Dec-27 BTP (ISIN: IT0005500068), a reopening of the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP (ISIN: IT0005494239) and a reopening of the Oct-30 CCTeu. There is an outside chance that Italy chooses to issue a new 10-year May-33 BTP rather than reopening the 2.50% Dec-32 BTP, but we think that is more likely to be launched in November.
  • Other potential upcoming syndication: Greece (possibly FRN).

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