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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(H2) Approaching The Key Bear Trigger

EURGBP TECHS

Fresh Multiyear Lows Once Again

STIR FUTURES

BLOCK: Large 3M SOFR Fly

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS

(H2) Probes Key Support

COMMODITIES

Oil Ends A Mixed Day Softer

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Gilt Week Ahead: External Events and Activity Data

The beginning of the week for gilts will be dictated largely by external events: news on Omicron affecting supply chains and US CPI (Wednesday) are likely to be among the most market moving events. Friday will then see the main UK data release of the week with November activity data.

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  • The beginning of the week for gilts will be dictated largely by external events. There are no MPC speakers in the first half of the week and with Covid-19 case numbers seeming to stabilise somewhat over the past few days, the government seems committed to “Plan B” with no further restrictions seeming likely in the near future. Indeed, if there are any changes to restrictions it seems as though it might be that the UK moves in line with the US in shortening the isolation period following a positive test from 7 days to 5 days. In terms of external events, news on Omicron affecting supply chains and US CPI (Wednesday) are likely to be among the most market moving events.
  • Turning back domestically, the only scheduled MPC appearances due this week are from Cunliffe on Wednesday where he is due to have a fireside chat on “CBDCs, stablecoins and privacy”. Mann then speaks on Thursday on whether Europe’s economies are converging or diverging. There are Q&As associated with this event so she could potentially be asked about UK monpol.
  • Friday will then see the main UK data release of the week with November monthly GDP and its components due for release.
  • See the full document for gilt supply previews for the week ahead, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.
For the full report see:

GiltWeekAhead220110.pdf