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MNI Gilt Week Ahead: BOE Week

  • The main event of the week ahead will of course be the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, the release of the MPR and policy decision and the ensuing press conference.
  • Out of the 22 analyst previews that we have read so far, 14 (64%) look for a 50bp hike this week (the remainder expect 25bp), with markets pricing in around an 80% probability of 50bp. However, most analysts also stated that they believe the decision could go either way. The communication will be equally important, with focus on whether the “forceful” language used in June will be retained or modified.
  • In terms of data this week, we have final PMI readings and Nationwide house price data.
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