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MNI Gilt Week Ahead: PMIs and Fiscal Data Due

We look at when the BOE will first cut rates, the data for the week ahead, MPC speakers and preview gilt auctions for the week ahead.

  • Looking ahead to this week, the data highlight will be the February Flash PMI data on Thursday. Markets will certainly pay attention to this release, albeit again we don’t think it will really alter the course of monetary policy over the next couple of meetings – further out the curve growth data should have more impact though.
  • This week will also see the release of public finance data on Wednesday. These data are not normally too market moving, but this release is likely to be more closely watched as we suspect it will be the last release to be used in the upcoming OBR forecasts that are due to be published alongside the Budget on 6 March.
  • In terms of MPC speakers this week, we will hear from Bailey, Broadbent, Greene and Dhingra as they testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on the February MPR on Tuesday. Broadbent spoke at the MPR press conference but hasn’t spoken since. His comments will therefore probably be most closely watched, and he continues to be seen as one of the thought leaders on the MPC – despite his last MPC meeting coming in June.
  • The week ahead will also see a live-streamed MNI Connect event with Swati Dhingra on Wednesday 21 February at 14:00GMT.
See the full document which also includes auction previews for the week ahead:

GiltWeekAhead20240219.pdf

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  • Looking ahead to this week, the data highlight will be the February Flash PMI data on Thursday. Markets will certainly pay attention to this release, albeit again we don’t think it will really alter the course of monetary policy over the next couple of meetings – further out the curve growth data should have more impact though.
  • This week will also see the release of public finance data on Wednesday. These data are not normally too market moving, but this release is likely to be more closely watched as we suspect it will be the last release to be used in the upcoming OBR forecasts that are due to be published alongside the Budget on 6 March.
  • In terms of MPC speakers this week, we will hear from Bailey, Broadbent, Greene and Dhingra as they testify ahead of the Treasury Select Committee on the February MPR on Tuesday. Broadbent spoke at the MPR press conference but hasn’t spoken since. His comments will therefore probably be most closely watched, and he continues to be seen as one of the thought leaders on the MPC – despite his last MPC meeting coming in June.
  • The week ahead will also see a live-streamed MNI Connect event with Swati Dhingra on Wednesday 21 February at 14:00GMT.
See the full document which also includes auction previews for the week ahead:

GiltWeekAhead20240219.pdf