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Maslowska Sees Polish CPI in Single Digits by Autumn

POLAND
  • The downward trend in Polish inflation seems to be lasting and price growth may reach single digits in early autumn, central banker Gabriela Maslowska was quoted as saying by PAP. "Inflation has been falling systematically since December, so it seems that this is a permanent trend," he said, adding that he hopes that "[Poland] will go down to single-digit inflation at the end this year, and maybe even early autumn."
  • The comments follow last week’s preliminary inflation data, which showed that Poland's CPI inflation slowed more than forecast to +14.7% Y/Y this month from +16.1% prior. The data inspired some dovish NBP repricing, with Poland's FRA curve shifting lower and EURPLN ending the session 0.21% in the green on Friday.
  • Today, EURPLN is seen ticking higher in recent trade. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 4.6232, the 20-day EMA, while the May 30 2022 low of 4.5599 marks firm support on the downside.
  • Looking ahead this week, manufacturing PMI data is the only notable release. The figure is expected to fall deeper into contractionary territory from 48.3 in March to 47.9 in April.
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