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May IPCA Inflation Expected To Dip To 4.04% Y/y

BRAZIL
  • Consumer prices as measured by the IPCA index are expected to have risen 0.33% in May on a monthly basis, according to the Bloomberg surveyed median, compared to a 0.61% advance in April. This would take the yearly reading to 4.04%, below the 4.07% seen in the mid-May figure. National statistics agency IBGE to release report at 1300BST/0800ET:
    • May IBGE Inflation IPCA YoY, est. 4.04%, prior 4.18%
    • May IBGE Inflation IPCA MoM, est. 0.33%, prior 0.61%
  • Petrobras’ price cuts to gasoline, diesel and bottled gas announced on May 16 should drive deflation in transportation and housing costs in the month. Offsetting these reductions may be price gains in food, apparel, health and personal care.
  • A lower-than-expected print might further fuel the rally seen across the DI swaps curve. Bets on a June rate cut may also garner attention although the majority of analysts predict this will be too early for any policy shift from the BCB, amid the persistence of core inflation and elevated expectations.
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