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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
The US House of Representatives endured another day of chaos on 4 January, as a group of hard-line Republican representatives refused to back majority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)'s bid for the speaker's gavel, paralysing the chamber.
- Three votes took place on 4 Jan, all with exactly the same result. All 212 Democrat representatives present voted for minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), 201 of the Republicans present voted for McCarthy, 20 Republicans voted for Byron Donalds (R-FL), and one Republican (Victoria Spartz of Indiana, who had voted for McCarthy in previous rounds) voted present - therefore abstaining.
- With the ballots set to continue indefinitely until a new speaker is elected, this essentially halts all work of Congress. No new representatives can be sworn in, the adoption of new rules cannot be completed, and no legislative work is possible.
- The chaos engulfing the process likely to point towards a very difficult task for whoever wins the speakership in corralling the various factions of the Republican party to win votes over the coming months. This summer's debt ceiling vote likely to prove a particular flashpoint.
- The House is set to reconvene at 1200ET/1700GMT/1800CET in order to resume the election process.
- Data from Smarkets gives McCarthy a narrow advantage over minority whip Steve Scalise (R-LA), with a 44.6% implied probability of winning compared to Scalise's 36.0% (see chart below).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Speaker of the House of Representatives, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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