EU COMMISSION
Members of the European Parliament will vote at 1300CET (0700ET, 1200BST) on Thursday 18 July to confirm or reject the European Council's nomination of Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to serve a second five-year term in office. VdL won over EU member state heads of gov't as part of a leadership package that includes former Portuguese PM Antonio Costa as EUCO president and Estonian PM Kaja Kallas as High Rep. for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. However, her approval by a majority of the 720 MEPs is far from assured.
- With 361 votes required for a majority (should all MEPs cast a ballot) the centrist EPP-S&D-RE alliance (401) if re-formed would see VdL elected. However, strict group discipline would be needed with very little room for centre-left S&D MEPs to vote against VdL.
- To broaden the coalition this would require either bringing the Greens into the group - likely requiring solid committment to the Green Deal that some on the right of VdL's EPP have sought to dilute - or the conservative ECR, risking more MEPs on the left of the alliance voting against the president.
Chart 1. European Parliament Composition by Political Group
Source: European Parliament, MNI. N,b. 33 MEPs sit as unaligned non-inscrits, marked as grey.
234 words