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MEXICO: Banorte Sticking With 25BP Cut Prediction

MEXICO
  • Following the earlier inflation data and previous market jitters earlier in the week, Banorte continue to expect a 25bps cut from Banxico later today. They believe that the improvement in core inflation and lower economic dynamism provide sufficient reasons for the dovish wing of the Board to support a renewed policy easing. 
  • However, Banorte recognise that recent dynamics in international markets –which have impacted local assets– have inserted additional risks to the decision, along with remaining challenges for headline inflation given the unfavourable performance of the non-core. This would support the arguments of the more hawkish members to proceed with greater caution. 
  • Considering this, we believe the tone of the statement could show greater caution around upcoming decisions despite the announcement of a rate cut.
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