Mid-Das Gas Summary: TTF Resumes Bearish Trend

European gas markets shrugged off earlier gains to trade lower on the day as bearish short-term fundamentals with high stocks and mild weather are offsetting unplanned supply disruptions from Norway. The front month is on track for another weekly net decline amid limited expectations for a significant pick up in heating demand this winter.

• TTF MAR 24 down -1.1% at 23.72€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -0.8% at 24.3€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 339mcm/d with the return of capacity at Aasta Hansteen although the unplanned outage at Karsto has been extended until Friday.
• Norway’s Karsto gas processing plant was partly evacuated due to an ethane leak on Wednesday evening but Gassco said it will have “minimal” impact on gas transport.
• The Dutch Gate LNG terminal in the port of Rotterdam plans scheduled maintenance for three days on May 6-8.
• The European weather forecast remains mild throughout the two week period although temperatures in NW Europe are expected to dip slightly closer to normal into the coming weekend.
• German natural consumption stood 28.5% below the 2018-2021 average last week, weighed on by lower household demand amid mild weather, Bnetza data showed.
• European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal as overall storage levels edge further above the previous five year range highs at 64.92% full on Feb 20 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 48.4%.
• European LNG sendout was up slightly again to 402.5mcm/d on Feb 20 according to Bloomberg compared to an average of around 343mcm/d so far in February.
• Italy’s FSRU Toscana terminal will undergo a shutdown due to an extraordinary maintenance a week earlier than previously announced according to a statement from operator OLT Offshore LNG Toscana.
• Russia’s Sakhalin Energy is offering 12 LNG cargoes a year to Chinese buyers for a term period of three to five years starting in August according to Platts sources.
• Three of Venture Global LNG’s main customers have asked US energy regulators to address the LNG developers request for a one-year permit extension to complete its Louisiana export facility.
• South and Southeast Asian LNG imports are forecast to rise by 12% on the year to 34.7mn tons this summer, as cheaper LNG spot cargoes, an increase in contracted volumes and newly commissioned LNG import facilities are driving LNG appetite according to BNEF.