Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Extends Gains

Front month TTF is extending yesterday’s gains amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, curtailed Norwegian pipeline flows and expectations of lower LNG imports into NW Europe this week. The start of the European natural gas storage injection season is showing above normal refill rates amid steady imports supplies and muted demand due to warm weather.

• TTF MAY 24 up 1.7% at 28.38€/MWh
• TTF Q3 24 up 1.7% at 29.15€/MWh
• TTF WIN 24 up 1.8% at 33.8€/MWh
• There are conflicting views around the progress of Israel/Hamas peace talks from both sides. Israel suggested cautious optimism of progress on a Gaza ceasefire deal but wires reported that Hamas rejected the proposal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 333.0mcm/d but still below normal due to an unplanned outage at the Asgard field.
• Above normal temperatures are expected to persist across Europe in the coming week although NW and central Europe could see temperature back near to normal levels during the second week of the outlook.
• European LNG sendout was at 336mcm/d on Apr. 7 compared to an average of 319mcm/d over the previous week.
• European gas storage was up to 60.19% full on Apr. 7 according to GIE with injections above the previous five year range level over last weekend. The seasonal five year average is 42.5% full with last year at 55.5%.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days declined by 3.8% last week to 3.5mn tons as of 7 April, according to Bloomberg estimates.
• The US is ‘focused’ on preventing Russia from developing new LNG projects according to the US assistant secretary of state for energy resources Geoffrey Pyatt.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 4% to 8.2mn tons during 1-7 April, supported by more shipments into Northwest Europe and Italy according to BNEF.
• Hungary intends to extend its existing LNG supply deal with Shell beyond 2027 and also hopes to increase the quantity of supplies, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said, cited by Bloomberg.
• The Orlen Group has increased the volume of natural gas transported to Poland via the Baltic Pipe from its own production assets in Norway by more than 30% according to a press release.