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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Further Retreats

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month further retreats with relatively mild weather and high storage levels offsetting supply side risks from the Middle East and Australia LNG strikes.

    • TTF NOV 23 down -3.5% at 46.77€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.4% at 52.74€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.2% at 51€/MWh
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes eased lower yesterday back to 315k contracts.
  • The latest weather forecast shows temperatures in NW and central Europe holding mostly near or slightly above normal throughout the coming two weeks although with a dip cooler early next week.
  • Australia’s Fair Work Commission has not planned any hearings between the Commissioner, Chevron and the unions on 17 October, according to information from the commission's website, after several days of mediation talks that started 11 October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are relatively unchanged in recent days with today nominated at 329mcm/d amid some unplanned capacity reductions.
  • European natural gas storage is up to the highest in over ten years at 97.95% full on 15 Oct according to GIE data after high end of season injection rates.
  • LNG net import flows were at 285mcm/d on 15 Oct according to Bloomberg compared to approximately 375mcm/d seen this time last year.
  • Global weekly LNG imports rose by 4% on the week to 7.5mn tons for October 9-15, as supplies into China and India increased according to BNEF.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
    • JKM Nov 23 up 17.1% at 16.23$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF May 24 up 3$/mmbtu at 1.81$/mmbtu
  • Qatar is still in need for around two-thirds of the supply from its planned LNG expansion projects as it aims to increase its LNG-producing capacity by 64% by 2027 according to several sources.
  • he Republic of Congo is planning to start LNG exports for the first time in December, the Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua said, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Aramco is looking at making additional investments into LNG, with some deals in the pipeline, according to its CEO Amir Nasser.
  • The current LNG project pipeline won’t be enough to keep up with stronger than expected global demand with a long-term role for gas in the energy transition according to Kenichi Hori at Mitsui.

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