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Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF on Track for Weekly Increase

NATURAL GAS

TTF gas markets are currently on track for a small week-on-week net increase as potential supply disruptions from the conflict in Israel offer upside while short-term fundamentals, including near-full inventories and mild weather are weighing on the front curve. The conflict in Israel and potential repercussions of escalations suggest the price volatility is likely to persist.

    • TTF NOV 23 up 0.8% at 51.2€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 1.5% at 55.7€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 1.3% at 53.4€/MWh
    • TTF Q124-NOV 23 up 0.4€/MWh at 4.5€/MWh
  • The 1Q24-Nov-23 premium has narrowed from highs of €6.57/MWh earlier this month.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes yesterday declined down to 231.8k.
  • Iran's Foreign Minster Hossein Amirabdollahian warned at the UN on Thursday that if Israel's retaliation against Palestinian militants Hamas in the Gaza Strip doesn't end then the US will "not be spared from this fire." - stoking tensions ahead of the latest strikes.
  • Weather forecasts for NW Europe have been slightly revised up with temperatures above the seasonal norm for most days until 6 November.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today up at slightly up at 316.2mcm/d. Curbs at Oseberg are still ongoing, while cuts at Troll were scheduled to end today.
  • European gas storage levels stood at 98.71% full on 25 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90%.
  • LNG flows to North West Europe were slightly down to 230.75mcm/d on 25 October, compared from 252.87% the day prior.
  • US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
    • JKM Nov 23 up 1.2% at 17.95$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.1$/mmbtu at 2.18$/mmbtu
  • FERC on Thursday agreed to a revised commissioning plan for Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu Pass facility, allowing it to turn on three processing trains while work on faulty power equipment continues according to Reuters.
  • China’s LNG terminal inventory was 367.9k mt as of Oct. 26, down 8.4k mt on the previous week, according to OilChem.
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