Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rallies Back Above €51/MWh

European natural gas prices reversed the earlier pull back, driven by the halt to Australian LNG strikes, and are trading higher with supply uncertainty still supporting prices amid the escalation of the conflict in Israel after the Jordan leg of US President Biden’s trip was cancelled due to an explosion at a Gaza hospital.

• TTF NOV 23 up 4.4% at 51.03€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 4.9% at 57.21€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 4.7% at 55.15€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes remain high at 324k contracts yesterday.
• Australian labour unions called off strikes at Chevron’s two LNG facilities, after workers accepted the firm’s proposed settlement on Tuesday according to the Offshore Alliance.
• The latest weather forecast shows above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the two week forecast period.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are just slightly lower today at 319.3mcm/d with capacity reductions still in place this week at Oseberg, Troll and “process problems” at Aasta Hansteen.
• European natural gas storage edged up again although with a drop in injections from yesterday as gas in store approaches capacity. Stores are at the highest in over ten years at 97.98% full on 16 Oct according to GIE data.
• Russian pipeline gas supplies to China could very soon reach the level that we previously exported to Western Europe," according to Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller.
• Kazakh state energy company QazaqGaz has agreed a new gas supply deal with China’s PetroChina, according to Reuters, citing the office of Kazakh President Tokayev.
• European LNG net import flows rose up to 358mcm/d on 16 Oct according to Bloomberg after seeing levels around 290mcm/d over the previous few days.
  • JKM Nov 23 up 8.9% at 18.37$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Nov 23 up 0.9$/mmbtu at 2.5$/mmbtu
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese power generators increased by 15.5% last week to 2.16mn tons as of 15 October, according to data released by the trade ministry.
• Shell has signed a supply deal for the Netherlands with QatarEnergy to buy 3.5mtpa of LNG from 2026 for the duration of 27 years, according to the Qatari company, cited by Bloomberg.
• Asia’s LNG imports in the January-September period this year remained below levels seen in 2021, lacking the anticipated post-opening gas recovery in China according to Bloomberg.