Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds

European gas is trading higher today after seeing a fall from a high of 54.3€/MWh on 30 Oct to a low of around 44.6€/MWh over the last week. Healthy near term supplies and low demand due to the warm start to winter are weighing on prices but the market remains sensitive to any unplanned supply disruptions.

• TTF DEC 23 up 2.7% at 46.04€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 1.9% at 47.74€/MWh
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday near normal at 234k.
• The latest weather forecast still shows little sign of cold weather with at or slightly above normal temperatures across Europe throughout the two week outlook.
• European industrial gas demand destruction caused by higher prices following Russia’s invasion into Ukraine is expected to persist, Engie CEO Catherine MacGregor said.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are steady today at 331.3mcm/d but could dip again into the weekend with a 20.5mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
• European natural gas storage levels are up to 99.63% full on 5 Nov according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 90.0% as small injections continue despite the traditional start to the withdrawal season.
• Natural gas storage inventories at capacity in Germany are likely to prevent a winter shortage according to German gas-storage organization INES.
• China has sufficient gas inventories to overcome potential supply disruptions from Central Asian countries that warned to potentially prioritize domestic supplies over exports this winter, consultant BSC said in a note.
• China's natural gas imports - both LNG and piped gas - fell to the lowest level since February at 8.79 million tons in October.
• European LNG sendout dropped slightly back to 347mcm/d on 5 Nov are reaching the highest since June at 392mcm/d on 3 Nov.
• EU imports of Russian LNG stood at around 13mn tons in the first ten months of this year, slightly lower than for the same period last year at 13.3mn tons, LSEG data showed.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days decreased by 12% over the last week, following six consecutive weeks of increases, to 4.77 million tons as of 5 November.
• Global weekly LNG imports rose by 38% to 8.7mn tons during the week of 30 October to 5 November, driven by increased volumes into North Asia according to BNEF.
• Global LNG imports are forecast to rise by 9% on the month to 33.9mn tons in November according to BNEF.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in December, January 2024 and February 2024 according to BNEF.
  • JKM DEC 23 up 1% at 16.48$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 unchanged at 2.14$/mmbtu
• Japan will ensure its energy supplies are not affected by the US sanctions on the Artic LNG 2 project in Russia, which is expected to be launched next month, Industry Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said.