Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Rebounds

TTF front month has recovered earlier losses, as weather risks and the start of storage withdrawal season are weighed against above-average stocks and ample supplies.

• TTF DEC 23 up 1% at 47.52€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 up 0.9% at 49.12€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast for NW and central Europe shows temperatures at or above normal throughout the two week outlook. Temperatures are expected to dip into this weekend before showing a warm start to next week and near normal thereafter.
• Natural gas consumption in the European Union last month rose to 24bcm, up by 5.1% year on year, primarily driven the industrial sector, data from the GECF Monthly Gas Report showed.
• Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe is slightly higher today up at 339.6mcm/d with an unplanned outage of 5.5mcm/d at Troll today due to a compressor failure.
• European natural gas storage is almost unchanged on the day and still up near capacity at 99.40% full on Nov 14 according to GIE data and compared to the five year average of 89.3%.
• Average daily natural gas supplies to Europe by Gazprom have fallen 6.7% in H1 November compared to October’s average flows, according to Reuters’ calculations.
• European LNG sendout was steady at 423mcm/d on 14 Nov just below the average of 434mcm/d over the previous week.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in January 2024, February 2024 and March 2024, BNEF data showed.
• North Asian LNG buyers are looking to resell shipments due to high inventory levels, including buyers from China and Japan, traders told Bloomberg.
• South Korean LNG lifters from US export terminals have begun bypassing the Panama Canal, heading to Asia via Suez, according to Platts.
  • JKM-TTF DEC 23 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 2.77$/mmbtu