Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides

Front month TTF is easing back, shortly breaking through yesterday’s low, as mild weather and forecasts for high wind output weigh on gas demand expectations, with additional downside from below-normal storage withdrawals. Supply risks due to Red Sea tanker diversions have been supportive this week, with front month TTF rising back above €31/MWh yesterday.

• TTF MAR 24 down -3% at 29.32€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 down -2% at 30.14€/MWh
• The US launched two separate strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and intercepted a missile, amid increasing tensions in the Red Sea.
• NW and central Europe are forecast to see mild weather continue through the first week of February before temperatures fall back to near normal from around Feb 12.
• European natural gas consumption rose by 12% year on year in January, amid strong gas use in the industrial sector and colder weather, IEA analyst, Greg Molnar said.
• German natural gas consumption last week stood 23.2% below the 2018-2021 average, weighed on by milder weather, Bnetza data showed.
• Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today at 345.7mcm/d after falling to 333.8mcm/d yesterday amid unplanned works at Kollsnes due to process problems.
• European natural gas storage remains above normal at 70.6 full on Jan 30 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 57.6%. Net withdrawals have edge higher this week but remain below normal rates.
• European LNG sendout was holding steady at 359mcm/d on Jan 30 compared to an average of about 381mcm/d during Jan.
• Gazprom’s natural gas supplies to Europe edged down on the month by 4.1% to 2.53bcm in January, Reuters calculations showed.
• Russia’s gas output rose 3.3% y/y in December to 61.9bcm according to Bloomberg based on Federal Statistics Service data.
• Recent signings of long-term LNG contracts by Petrobangla highlights Bangladesh’s preference for securing term supply rather than relying on the spot market, according to Platts.