Mid-Day Gas Summary: TTF Slides Despite No Updates on Strike Talks

TTF eased back today with the front month falling to an intra-day low of €35.025/MWh before rising back up as markets await news on the outcome of a meeting between Woodside Energy and the unions that could lead to industrial action as soon as 2 September, if no agreement is to be reached.

• TTF SEP 23 down -11.7% at 37.9€/MWh
• Prices rose back up from the intra-day low following a statement from Woodside that there has been no update on LNG strike talks yet. TTF prices rose to the highest since early April at 44.8€/MWh yesterday.
• A ballot of workers at Chevron’s Gorgon and Wheatstone downstream facilities is to be finalized by 3pm Perth time tomorrow. Chevron plans to increase domestic gas production at its Wheatstone project amid concerns of a strike. The capacity would rise to 215 TJ/d from 205 TJ/d previously.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are about 35mcm/d down from levels seen earlier in August at 300.7mcm/d today due to seasonal field and processing plant maintenance. Flows are expected to fall further in the coming days with large outages including at Troll and Kollsnes from 26 Aug.
• European gas storage is up to 91.3% full on a 21 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 78.2%.
• norwegian hydropower reserves increased by 1.1 percentage points on the week to 78.7% of capacity as of 22 August, widening the surplus to the five-year average to the highest level so far this year.
• LNG sendout to Europe was back up to 313mcm/d on 21 Aug after falling as low as about 260mcm/d over the weekend but remains below levels seen this time last year.
• US LNG exports have become more profitable to Europe from Q3 as of current prices Aug. 23. In October, Europe earns a netback of $11.40/MMBtu, compared to $10.40/MMBtu for Asia. Europe is the premium market in November and December, with netbacks of $13.51/MMBtu and $14.07/MMBtu respectively. This compares to netbacks of $13.05/MMBtu for Asia in November and $13.96/MMBtu in December.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 up 0.3$/mmbtu at 1.37$/mmbtu
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese electric utilities has fallen to a 16-month low as a hot summer has bolstered cooling demand, according to data from Japan’s Energy Ministry.