Mid-Day Oil Summary: Crude Softens

Crude markets are trading lower on the day as tensions in the Middle East remain in focus. The pressure on oil has eased slightly as negotiations to release Israeli hostages has put the ground invasion of Gaza on hold.

• Brent DEC 23 down -0.7% at 91.55$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 down -0.8% at 87.34$/bbl
• Crude managed money net long positions increased last week with a rise in Brent positions offsetting a fall in WTI according to Commitments of Traders data released on Friday. The combined net long positions for Brent and WTI increased by +14k to 404k.
• The amount of crude oil held around the world on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by 11% on the week to 63.54m bbl as of 13 October, the lowest level since March 2020, Vortexa data show, cited by Bloomberg.
• Libyan oil production is at 1.21mn bpd while condensate production is at 52,000 bpd according to the National Oil Corporation Sunday.
• US liquids growth is expected to slow in 2024 to 600kb/d compared to 1.4mb/d in 2023 amid ongoing capital discipline according to Goldman Sachs.
• China tapped into crude stockpiles for the second time in three months in September according to Reuters calculations as they processed record crude volumes while imports dipped.
• China’s planned exports of refined products are expected to be 2.51m mt in November, down 39.7% on October levels, according to OilChem.
• Crude processing at India’s oil refiners increased 4.1% y/y in September to 20.3m tons according to preliminary data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
• Russia’s recovery in crude processing rates has slowed in October, with little additional capacity returning during the rest of the month, according to Bloomberg.
• Norway’s total liquids production in September fell to the lowest level so far this year amid a significant decline in natural gas production, NPD data showed.
• If the Israel-Hamas war worsens oil could rise 10$/bbl or more according to RBC Capital Markets LLC.
• Venezuela’s Houston based Citgo Petroleum will end up in the hands of one or more of the largest refiners operating in the US according to Reuters sources as creditors seek to have long-standing debts repaid by the company.
• Trafigura is seeking to charter at least one large tanker to export Venezuelan fuel oil after US sanctions have eased according to Reuters sources late last week.