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Mid-November IPCA Inflation Due

BRAZIL
  • Consumer prices as measured by the IPCA-15 index likely increased by 0.30% in November on a monthly basis, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. This is expected to translate to an annual reading of 4.82% Y/y which would exactly match the full October reading, released earlier this month.
  • Easing pressure on core prices would allow traders to strengthen bets on lower rates as the administration continues its strong rhetoric towards encouraging lower interest rates in the country. For reference, DI swap rate contracts maturing in January 2027 is down more than 100bps this month and heading to a YTD low near 10%. National statistics agency IBGE to disclose data at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Nov. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/m, est. 0.30%, prior 0.21%
    • Nov. IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 Y/y, est. 4.82%, prior 5.05%

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