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Migration Gains Off Peak But Still Elevated

NEW ZEALAND
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NZ saw a net migration gain of 7380 in April after an upwardly revised 4910. This was the largest increase this year and the 12-month sum remains elevated but it peaked in October and continued trending lower in April.

  • Strong migration has added to the labour supply and helped to reduce tightness in the labour market. SEEK applications per ad are at very high levels and while they may turn down soon, they are likely to remain elevated. Weaker job prospects are probably weighing on NZ’s attractiveness as a destination and it seems to be driving an increase in departures.
  • While stronger supply of labour reduces inflationary pressures, the rise in the working age population is putting pressure on housing, especially rents. So, the RBNZ is likely on hold for the foreseeable future.
  • Westpac notes that both inflows and outflows of people were strong in April, which may be due to the April school holidays. There was a large rise in “migrants” on visitor visas.
  • ASB points out that growth in tourist numbers is slowing and that will weigh on NZ growth.

NZ net migration vs job applications

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NZ saw a net migration gain of 7380 in April after an upwardly revised 4910. This was the largest increase this year and the 12-month sum remains elevated but it peaked in October and continued trending lower in April.

  • Strong migration has added to the labour supply and helped to reduce tightness in the labour market. SEEK applications per ad are at very high levels and while they may turn down soon, they are likely to remain elevated. Weaker job prospects are probably weighing on NZ’s attractiveness as a destination and it seems to be driving an increase in departures.
  • While stronger supply of labour reduces inflationary pressures, the rise in the working age population is putting pressure on housing, especially rents. So, the RBNZ is likely on hold for the foreseeable future.
  • Westpac notes that both inflows and outflows of people were strong in April, which may be due to the April school holidays. There was a large rise in “migrants” on visitor visas.
  • ASB points out that growth in tourist numbers is slowing and that will weigh on NZ growth.

NZ net migration vs job applications

Keep reading...Show less