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Mild Twist Flattening As Digest Weak China Data, PBOC Easing

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a modest twist flattening with the pivot beyond, 7s with the long end rallying in what could be carry over from softer than expected China data this morning, compounding Friday’s aggregate financing miss and prompting PBOC easing.
  • Little impact from weekend headlines that 5 U.S. lawmakers travelling to Taiwan less than 2 weeks after Pelosi’s visit, whilst front end yields meanwhile track last week’s recovery in the Fed’s terminal rate to pre-US CPI levels whilst also leaning marginally closer towards a 75bp than 50bp hike in Sept.
  • 2YY +0.7bps at 3.249%, 5YY +0.2bps at 2.958%, 10YY -0.4bps at 2.828%, 30YY -0.5bps at 3.102%.
  • TYU2 trades 4+ ticks higher at 119-13 with relatively tight ranges and towards the mid-to-lower end of last week’s wide ranges. It’s amidst typically low seasonal volumes, exacerbated by widespread observance of the Assumption Day holiday in Europe.
  • Data: The Empire Mfg (0830ET) and NAHB (1000ET) indexes headline a light US docket, although also see TIC flows at 1600ET.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $54B 13w, $42B 26W bill auctions
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  • Cash Tsys have seen a modest twist flattening with the pivot beyond, 7s with the long end rallying in what could be carry over from softer than expected China data this morning, compounding Friday’s aggregate financing miss and prompting PBOC easing.
  • Little impact from weekend headlines that 5 U.S. lawmakers travelling to Taiwan less than 2 weeks after Pelosi’s visit, whilst front end yields meanwhile track last week’s recovery in the Fed’s terminal rate to pre-US CPI levels whilst also leaning marginally closer towards a 75bp than 50bp hike in Sept.
  • 2YY +0.7bps at 3.249%, 5YY +0.2bps at 2.958%, 10YY -0.4bps at 2.828%, 30YY -0.5bps at 3.102%.
  • TYU2 trades 4+ ticks higher at 119-13 with relatively tight ranges and towards the mid-to-lower end of last week’s wide ranges. It’s amidst typically low seasonal volumes, exacerbated by widespread observance of the Assumption Day holiday in Europe.
  • Data: The Empire Mfg (0830ET) and NAHB (1000ET) indexes headline a light US docket, although also see TIC flows at 1600ET.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $54B 13w, $42B 26W bill auctions